The Galloway Prediction Index
Quiet signalWe graded Scott Galloway's predictions — 1,124 and counting.
Launched 23d ago
Signal
18
Velocity
21
What this means
30%Vote pace is below typical for this category.
Running at 30% of comparable launches.
-75%Category cooling: Business Intelligence.
Launches down 75% week-over-week.
20Founder Conviction Index: 20 — low signal.
Few of the conviction sub-signals (reputation, velocity, buyer-intent, tagline clarity) are firing yet.
Prediction
Top-5 finish probability
10%
today
Projected end-of-day votes
2range 2–3
Trajectory
stable
Not enough snapshots yet to detect trajectory.
Speed vs peers
0.3×
282 comparable launches
About
Scott Galloway makes bold calls every week on Pivot. We pulled 1,124 of them from 751 episodes going back to 2018 and graded each one against what actually happened. His hit rate so far: 47%. AI finds each prediction in the transcript, keeps the exact clip, researches the outcome on the web, and cites its sources. Open predictions are rechecked as events unfold, so new verdicts land within days.
Attention & discussion velocity
Not enough snapshots yet. Run the snapshot worker every 15 min to build the time-series.
Performance
Pace needs two or more snapshots. This launch has 1, so velocity and momentum read as unmeasured rather than zero.
Velocity—
not measured
Momentum—
not measured
Virality—
not measured
Engagement—
not measured
Signal sources
1 of 6 active- Launch tracking1 reading since we picked it up
- AI analysisnot yet enriched
- Comment intelligencethread not yet analysed
- Outside discussionnot checked — domain is a storefront or shared
- Revenue signalsno match on this domain
- Editorial scoringbelow the signal threshold for this pass
A source that found nothing is a measurement. A source that has not run is a gap. Neither means the launch lacks the thing.